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财经麻辣姐:如果明天房价真的崩了,将会发生什么

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年09月19日 22:39:23
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(在)(这)(个)(时)(代)(,很)(少)(有)(人)(再)(抱)(怨)(自)(己)(“成)(了)(房)(奴)(”,或)(是)(“给)(银)(行)(打)(工)(”之)(类)(。买)(了)(房)(的)(人)(都)(强)(烈)(意)(识)(到)(,这)(可)(能)(是)(自)(己)(人)(生)(中)(一)(个)(最)(正)(确)(的)(投)(资)(决)(定)(,可)(谓)(实)(现)(了)(从)(无)(产)(者)(到)(有)(产)(者)(的)(“惊)(险)(的)(一)(跃)(”,和)(现)(在)(那)(些)(“想)(做)(房)(奴)(而)(不)(得)(”的)(人)(相)(比)(,自)(己)(简)(直)(太)(幸)(运)(了)(!在)(这)(种)(背)(景)(下)(,还)(说)(自)(己)(是)(“房)(奴)(”就)(变)(成)(了)(一)(种)(身)(份)(炫)(耀)(;房)(价)(明)(明)(涨)(了)(一)(倍)(,而)(你)(却)(只)(给)(银)(行)(年)(化)(5%的)(利)(息)(,还)(说)(自)(己)(是)(在)(“给)(银)(行)(打)(工)(”,不)(是)(矫)(情)(是)(什)(么)(?
不)(仅)(如)(此)(,在)(这)(个)(时)(代)(,连)(“楼)(市)(唱)(空)(派)(”都)(消)(停)(了)(。“唱)(空)(派)(”最)(活)(跃)(的)(时)(期)(是)(北)(京)(房)(价)(刚)(破)(万)(元)(的)(时)(代)(。如)(今)(到)(了)(10万)(元)(时)(代)(,按)(说)(楼)(市)(风)(险)(肯)(定)(越)(来)(越)(高)(,然)(而)(这)(时)(“唱)(空)(派)(”的)(主)(力)(大)(将)(们)(却)(要)(么)(闭)(嘴)(要)(么)(叛)(变)(,“万)(马)(齐)(喑)(究)(可)(哀)(”。原)(因)(无)(他)(,只)(因)(唱)(空)(论)(调)(已)(经)(不)(再)(受)(大)(众)(欢)(迎)(。屁)(股)(决)(定)(脑)(袋)(,如)(今)(稍)(微)(有)(点)(家)(底)(、有)(点)(头)(脑)(的)(人)(都)(凑)(钱)(买)(了)(房)(,自)(然)(而)(然)(从)(看)(空)(转)(为)(看)(多)(,舆)(论)(风)(向)(也)(随)(之)(悄)(悄)(改)(变)(。而)(那)(些)(十)(年)(前)(就)(持)(币)(待)(购)(、等)(待)(楼)(市)(崩)(盘)(抄)(底)(的)(人)(呢)(?如)(今)(绝)(对)(是)(恨)(透)(了)(这)(帮)(“唱)(空)(派)(”,当)(初)(为)(什)(么)(就)(信)(了)(他)(们)(?!
问)(题)(是)(,到)(底)(什)(么)(时)(候)(崩)(盘)(?
那)(么)(,“唱)(空)(派)(”真)(的)(错)(了)(吗)(?从)(长)(期)(来)(说)(,他)(们)(没)(错)(。是)(市)(场)(经)(济)(就)(一)(定)(会)(符)(合)(市)(场)(规)(律)(,是)(成)(熟)(楼)(市)(就)(一)(定)(会)(经)(历)(涨)(跌)(循)(环)(的)(楼)(市)(周)(期)(,“北)(上)(广)(永)(远)(涨)(”从)(逻)(辑)(上)(来)(说)(无)(论)(如)(何)(不)(能)(成)(立)(。如)(果)(问)(,一)(线)(楼)(市)(有)(泡)(沫)(吗)(?有)(,而)(且)(还)(会)(更)(大)(。到)(底)(会)(不)(会)(崩)(盘)(?从)(长)(期)(看)(,一)(定)(会)(。然)(而)(,知)(道)(这)(些)(有)(屁)(用)(?就)(像)(凯)(恩)(斯)(说)(的)(,“从)(长)(期)(看)(,我)(们)(都)(死)(了)(”。大)(家)(真)(正)(想)(知)(道)(的)(是)(,什)(么)(时)(候)(崩)(?楼)(市)(可)(能)(再)(涨)(10年)(吗)(?
中)(国)(从)(1998年)(房)(改)(以)(来)(直)(接)(进)(入)(牛)(市)(周)(期)(,迄)(今)(将)(近)(20年)(。如)(果)(再)(涨)(10年)(,就)(是)(30年)(。历)(史)(上)(有)(超)(过)(30年)(的)(牛)(市)(周)(期)(吗)(?你)(别)(说)(还)(真)(有)(,而)(且)(竟)(然)(就)(是)(一)(直)(被)(拿)(来)(当)(反)(面)(教)(材)(的)(日)(本)(楼)(市)(。
众)(所)(周)(知)(,日)(本)(楼)(市)(进)(入)(疯)(狂)(泡)(沫)(期)(是)(在)(1985年)(广)(场)(协)(议)(之)(后)(,从)(1985年)(至)(1990年)(,房)(价)(上)(涨)(了)(100%。楼)(市)(崩)(盘)(后)(房)(价)(逐)(年)(下)(跌)(,至)(2005年)(大)(概)(跌)(去)(一)(半)(,回)(到)(1985年)(的)(水)(平)(,因)(此)(叫)(做)(“失)(去)(的)(20年)(”。但)(是)(,如)(果)(把)(观)(察)(时)(间)(拉)(长)(,随)(着)(二)(战)(后)(日)(本)(经)(济)(腾)(飞)(,从)(1956年)(开)(始)(,日)(本)(楼)(市)(就)(进)(入)(牛)(市)(周)(期)(,在)(1956—1985年)(的)(近)(30年)(中)(一)(直)(上)(涨)(。如)(果)(算)(上)(1985—1990年)(的)(疯)(狂)(泡)(沫)(期)(,那)(么)(日)(本)(楼)(市)(经)(历)(了)(一)(个)(长)(达)(35年)(的)(上)(行)(周)(期)(,其)(间)(日)(本)(六)(大)(城)(市)(地)(价)(上)(涨)(了)(56倍)(。
那)(么)(现)(在)(谁)(能)(判)(断)(,目)(前)(的)(中)(国)(楼)(市)(是)(在)(一)(个)(大)(牛)(市)(的)(中)(部)(,还)(是)(最)(后)(的)(疯)(狂)(泡)(沫)(期)(?恐)(怕)(谁)(也)(不)(敢)(断)(言)(。正)(如)(格)(林)(斯)(潘)(所)(说)(,“只)(有)(在)(泡)(沫)(破)(灭)(之)(后)(,才)(知)(道)(它)(是)(泡)(沫)(”。在)(我)(们)(已)(经)(经)(历)(的)(近)(20年)(牛)(市)(中)(,至)(少)(在)(10年)(前)(,楼)(市)(泡)(沫)(论)(就)(已)(经)(大)(行)(其)(道)(。如)(今)(回)(过)(头)(来)(看)(,10年)(前)(的)(楼)(市)(哪)(有)(什)(么)(泡)(沫)(?当)(然)(这)(是)(事)(后)(诸)(葛)(亮)(,人)(人)(都)(会)(当)(。
不)(过)(,如)(果)(中)(国)(楼)(市)(的)(牛)(市)(周)(期)(真)(有)(30年)(,你)(错)(过)(了)(前)(面)(20年)(,难)(道)(还)(想)(再)(错)(过)(10年)(?你)(为)(了)(等)(楼)(市)(泡)(沫)(破)(灭)(,竟)(然)(白)(白)(浪)(费)(掉)(人)(生)(中)(唯)(一)(一)(次)(超)(长)(大)(牛)(市)(的)(机)(会)(,这)(是)(有)(多)(执)(着)(?!
潜)(在)(的)(进)(场)(接)(盘)(资)(金)(有)(多)(少)(?
说)(到)(底)(,楼)(市)(到)(底)(有)(没)(有)(泡)(沫)(,根)(本)(不)(是)(一)(个)(值)(得)(考)(虑)(的)(问)(题)(。真)(正)(需)(要)(判)(断)(的)(是)(,泡)(沫)(什)(么)(时)(候)(会)(很)(危)(险)(。因)(此)(最)(直)(接)(的)(指)(标)(不)(是)(租)(售)(比)(,不)(是)(房)(价)(收)(入)(比)(,也)(不)(是)(房)(产)(总)(额)(与)(GDP之)(比)(,甚)(至)(和)(人)(口)(变)(化)(也)(没)(多)(大)(关)(系)(。而)(是)(,潜)(在)(的)(能)(进)(场)(接)(盘)(的)(资)(金)(还)(有)(多)(少)(。
大)(家)(都)(知)(道)(股)(市)(里)(有)(个)(著)(名)(的)(“擦)(鞋)(童)(理)(论)(”:当)(擦)(鞋)(童)(都)(在)(讨)(论)(股)(票)(投)(资)(的)(时)(候)(,就)(离)(股)(市)(崩)(盘)(不)(远)(了)(。据)(说)(在)(1929年)(大)(萧)(条)(前)(的)(某)(一)(天)(,股)(票)(投)(资)(人)(老)(肯)(尼)(迪)(在)(华)(尔)(街)(上)(擦)(皮)(鞋)(,他)(的)(擦)(鞋)(童)(向)(其)(得)(意)(洋)(洋)(地)(透)(露)(了)(自)(己)(股)(票)(赚)(钱)(的)(秘)(诀)(。老)(肯)(尼)(迪)(猛)(然)(一)(惊)(,回)(到)(办)(公)(室)(就)(把)(手)(里)(的)(股)(票)(全)(部)(抛)(出)(,从)(而)(成)(功)(躲)(过)(1929年)(大)(股)(灾)(。
这)(个)(故)(事)(告)(诉)(我)(们)(什)(么)(呢)(?显)(而)(易)(见)(的)(说)(法)(是)(,连)(擦)(鞋)(童)(都)(入)(市)(炒)(股)(,说)(明)(股)(市)(已)(经)(进)(入)(最)(后)(的)(疯)(狂)(。但)(其)(实)(,疯)(狂)(并)(不)(一)(定)(就)(意)(味)(着)(泡)(沫)(破)(灭)(,也)(有)(可)(能)(是)(泡)(沫)(才)(刚)(刚)(开)(始)(,正)(如)(1985年)(的)(日)(本)(楼)(市)(。老)(肯)(尼)(迪)(想)(到)(的)(是)(,连)(擦)(鞋)(童)(的)(钱)(都)(已)(经)(入)(市)(了)(,说)(明)(当)(时)(的)(股)(市)(已)(经)(吸)(纳)(了)(全)(部)(可)(能)(吸)(纳)(的)(社)(会)(资)(金)(,已)(经)(不)(可)(能)(有)(更)(多)(的)(资)(金)(来)(接)(盘)(了)(。这)(对)(于)(泡)(沫)(来)(说)(,才)(是)(最)(致)(命)(的)(。
再)(回)(过)(头)(来)(看)(一)(线)(城)(市)(房)(价)(。单)(从)(雄)(安)(一)(役)(,从)(政)(府)(和)(游)(资)(连)(连)(过)(招)(的)(惊)(险)(对)(决)(中)(,我)(们)(看)(出)(了)(什)(么)(?目)(前)(仍)(有)(天)(量)(游)(资)(,被)(重)(重)(限)(购)(令)(封)(堵)(在)(一)(线)(楼)(市)(之)(外)(,因)(此)(才)(会)(一)(见)(到)(其)(他)(投)(资)(机)(会)(,就)(如)(同)(鲨)(鱼)(见)(血)(。设)(想)(一)(下)(,一)(旦)(稍)(有)(风)(吹)(草)(动)(,政)(府)(出)(于)(救)(市)(考)(虑)(决)(定)(破)(堤)(放)(水)(、解)(除)(限)(购)(,这)(些)(天)(量)(游)(资)(瞬)(间)(涌)(入)(,会)(把)(一)(线)(房)(价)(炒)(高)(到)(什)(么)(程)(度)(?只)(有)(那)(时)(,才)(说)(得)(上)(是)(真)(正)(的)(高)(危)(泡)(沫)(期)(。
楼)(市)(崩)(盘)(不)(是)(世)(界)(末)(日)(
现)(在)(我)(们)(不)(妨)(来)(设)(想)(一)(种)(最)(坏)(的)(情)(况)(:如)(果)(明)(天)(房)(价)(真)(的)(崩)(了)(,将)(会)(发)(生)(什)(么)(?
日)(本)(楼)(市)(崩)(盘)(,跌)(幅)(为)(60%;亚)(洲)(金)(融)(危)(机)(,香)(港)(楼)(市)(跌)(幅)(55%;美)(国)(次)(贷)(危)(机)(,楼)(市)(跌)(幅)(40%;迪)(拜)(债)(务)(危)(机)(,楼)(市)(跌)(幅)(50%。按)(最)(坏)(的)(可)(能)(,假)(设)(中)(国)(楼)(市)(崩)(盘)(后)(,将)(跌)(去)(60%的)(市)(值)(。这)(听)(起)(来)(很)(吓)(人)(,但)(并)(不)(是)(世)(界)(末)(日)(。有)(房)(者)(的)(账)(面)(财)(富)(的)(确)(会)(缩)(水)(,然)(而)(想)(象)(当)(中)(哀)(鸿)(遍)(野)(的)(情)(况)(并)(不)(会)(出)(现)(。
还)(拿)(帝)(都)(举)(例)(,目)(前)(二)(手)(房)(均)(价)(为)(6万)(,跌)(去)(60%,为)(2.4万)(,这)(是)(帝)(都)(2012年)(的)(房)(价)(水)(平)(。也)(就)(是)(说)(,即)(使)(出)(现)(房)(价)(崩)(盘)(,对)(2012年)(之)(前)(购)(房)(的)(人)(来)(说)(,没)(有)(实)(际)(损)(失)(。同)(理)(,对)(于)(2012年)(前)(已)(经)(购)(房)(、2012年)(后)(换)(房)(的)(人)(来)(说)(,实)(际)(损)(失)(也)(不)(算)(大)(。真)(正)(损)(失)(比)(较)(惨)(重)(的)(,是)(2012年)(以)(后)(的)(初)(次)(购)(房)(者)(。
这)(些)(初)(次)(购)(房)(者)(绝)(大)(多)(数)(都)(是)(从)(外)(地)(到)(北)(京)(打)(拼)(的)(年)(轻)(人)(。对)(他)(们)(来)(说)(,北)(京)(的)(一)(套)(房)(子)(并)(不)(仅)(仅)(是)(房)(子)(,还)(事)(关)(身)(份)(、户)(口)(、子)(女)(教)(育)(,因)(而)(是)(家)(族)(的)(荣)(耀)(,是)(婚)(姻)(市)(场)(上)(最)(重)(的)(筹)(码)(。他)(们)(会)(轻)(易)(断)(供)(吗)(?绝)(对)(不)(会)(。银)(行)(面)(临)(大)(面)(积)(违)(约)(的)(风)(险)(并)(不)(高)(。退)(一)(步)(说)(,即)(使)(大)(面)(积)(违)(约)(,政)(府)(能)(让)(银)(行)(倒)(闭)(吗)(?肯)(定)(是)(第)(一)(时)(间)(开)(动)(印)(钞)(机)(给)(银)(行)(大)(输)(血)(,新)(一)(轮)(通)(胀)(在)(所)(难)(免)(。那)(么)(,什)(么)(资)(产)(最)(能)(抗)(通)(胀)(?你)(又)(猜)(对)(了)(,还)(是)(房)(子)(。
至)(于)(想)(象)(中)(的)(抄)(底)(?别)(忘)(了)(,房)(价)(崩)(盘)(首)(先)(意)(味)(着)(金)(融)(危)(机)(,前)(面)(提)(到)(的)(无)(论)(日)(本)(楼)(市)(崩)(盘)(还)(是)(美)(国)(次)(贷)(危)(机)(,都)(是)(从)(股)(市)(暴)(跌)(开)(始)(的)(。除)(非)(你)(一)(直)(手)(握)(几)(百)(万)(现)(金)(,不)(介)(入)(任)(何)(金)(融)(理)(财)(,在)(长)(达)(数)(年)(的)(时)(间)(里)(眼)(睁)(睁)(看)(着)(自)(己)(的)(存)(款)(贬)(值)(。(很)(难)(想)(象)(有)(这)(样)(的)(人)(存)(在)(。)否)(则)(,逢)(低)(抄)(底)(的)(机)(会)(根)(本)(不)(存)(在)(,别)(再)(自)(己)(骗)(自)(己)(了)(!返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
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