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强势美元的背后——八论繁荣的顶点

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年10月18日 01:36:28
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(2018年)(以)(来)(,美)(元)(指)(数)(结)(束)(下)(跌)(态)(势)(,大)(幅)(反)(弹)(。通)(过)(构)(建)(美)(元)(指)(数)(的)(分)(析)(框)(架)(,以)(及)(结)(合)(全)(球)(经)(济)(走)(势)(和)(历)(史)(经)(验)(规)(律)(,我)(们)(发)(现)(:
1)长)(期)(来)(看)(,美)(元)(指)(数)(是)(反)(映)(美)(国)(经)(济)(相)(对)(全)(球)(经)(济)(强)(弱)(的)(价)(格)(指)(标)(。美)(元)(指)(数)(衡)(量)(了)(美)(元)(对)(欧)(元)(和)(日)(元)(等)(一)(揽)(子)(货)(币)(的)(汇)(率)(变)(化)(,是)(反)(映)(美)(国)(经)(济)(相)(对)(全)(球)(经)(济)(强)(弱)(的)(价)(格)(指)(标)(。长)(期)(来)(看)(,美)(元)(指)(数)(走)(势)(与)(美)(国)(在)(全)(球)(经)(济)(中)(的)(比)(重)(变)(化)(基)(本)(一)(致)(。
2)中)(短)(期)(内)(,美)(元)(指)(数)(受)(欧)(洲)(经)(济)(和)(货)(币)(政)(策)(的)(影)(响)(较)(大)(。欧)(元)(在)(美)(元)(指)(数)(中)(占)(比)(近)(60%、与)(美)(元)(指)(数)(走)(势)(基)(本)(相)(反)(,中)(短)(期)(内)(,欧)(洲)(经)(济)(和)(货)(币)(政)(策)(可)(通)(过)(欧)(元)(显)(著)(影)(响)(美)(元)(走)(势)(。例)(如)(,欧)(洲)(经)(济)(和)(货)(币)(政)(策)(表)(现)(强)(势)(时)(,欧)(元)(一)(般)(趋)(升)(、美)(元)(趋)(贬)(。
3)2018年)(来)(,随)(着)(欧)(洲)(景)(气)(见)(顶)(回)(落)(和)(欧)(央)(行)(释)(放)(鸽)(派)(信)(号)(,美)(元)(指)(数)(止)(跌)(反)(弹)(。2017年)(,欧)(洲)(经)(济)(加)(速)(增)(长)(、欧)(央)(行)(缩)(减)(货)(币)(宽)(松)(,欧)(元)(持)(续)(上)(涨)(,美)(元)(指)(数)(大)(跌)(。2018年)(来)(,伴)(随)(全)(球)(到)(达)(繁)(荣)(顶)(点)(,欧)(洲)(出)(口)(大)(跌)(、景)(气)(见)(顶)(回)(落)(,欧)(央)(行)(也)(因)(此)(释)(放)(鸽)(派)(信)(号)(。美)(强)(、欧)(弱)(格)(局)(逐)(步)(形)(成)(,美)(元)(指)(数)(止)(跌)(反)(弹)(。
4)本)(轮)(全)(球)(经)(济)(周)(期)(尾)(端)(,美)(元)(指)(数)(或)(继)(续)(保)(持)(强)(势)(。历)(史)(经)(验)(显)(示)(,全)(球)(经)(济)(周)(期)(尾)(端)(,美)(元)(指)(数)(往)(往)(易)(涨)(难)(跌)(。本)(轮)(全)(球)(周)(期)(尾)(端)(,美)(元)(指)(数)(或)(继)(续)(保)(持)(强)(势)(。具)(体)(来)(看)(,受)(特)(朗)(普)(推)(行)(贸)(易)(保)(护)(和)(中)(国)(进)(口)(下)(行)(等)(影)(响)(,全)(球)(和)(欧)(洲)(景)(气)(或)(将)(加)(速)(回)(落)(;同)(时)(,若)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(因)(资)(本)(外)(流)(冲)(击)(爆)(发)(尾)(部)(风)(险)(,资)(金)(或)(将)(加)(速)(回)(流)(美)(国)(。
【本)(文)(推)(送)(内)(容)(节)(选)(自)(长)(江)(研)(究)(已)(发)(布)(报)(告)(,报)(告)(原)(文)(请)(见)(2018年)(8月)(3日)(发)(布)(的)(研)(究)(报)(告)(《强)(势)(美)(元)(的)(背)(后)(——八)(论)(繁)(荣)(的)(顶)(点)(》】
证)(券)(研)(究)(报)(告)(:强)(势)(美)(元)(的)(背)(后)(——八)(论)(繁)(荣)(的)(顶)(点)(
对)(外)(发)(布)(时)(间)(:2018年)(8月)(3日)(
2018/07/31
2018/07/30
中)(低)(评)(级)(信)(用)(利)(差)(,拐)(点)(已)(现)(?2018/07/29
评)(级)(说)(明)(及)(声)(明)(
重)(要)(声)(明)(
长)(江)(证)(券)(股)(份)(有)(限)(公)(司)(具)(有)(证)(券)(投)(资)(咨)(询)(业)(务)(资)(格)(,经)(营)(证)(券)(业)(务)(许)(可)(证)(编)(号)(:10060000。本)(报)(告)(的)(作)(者)(是)(基)(于)(独)(立)(、客)(观)(、公)(正)(和)(审)(慎)(的)(原)(则)(制)(作)(本)(研)(究)(报)(告)(。本)(报)(告)(的)(信)(息)(均)(来)(源)(于)(公)(开)(资)(料)(,本)(公)(司)(对)(这)(些)(信)(息)(的)(准)(确)(性)(和)(完)(整)(性)(不)(作)(任)(何)(保)(证)(,也)(不)(保)(证)(所)(包)(含)(信)(息)(和)(建)(议)(不)(发)(生)(任)(何)(变)(更)(。本)(公)(司)(已)(力)(求)(报)(告)(内)(容)(的)(客)(观)(、公)(正)(,但)(文)(中)(的)(观)(点)(、结)(论)(和)(建)(议)(仅)(供)(参)(考)(,不)(包)(含)(作)(者)(对)(证)(券)(价)(格)(涨)(跌)(或)(市)(场)(走)(势)(的)(确)(定)(性)(判)(断)(。报)(告)(中)(的)(信)(息)(或)(意)(见)(并)(不)(构)(成)(所)(述)(证)(券)(的)(买)(卖)(出)(价)(或)(征)(价)(,投)(资)(者)(据)(此)(做)(出)(的)(任)(何)(投)(资)(决)(策)(与)(本)(公)(司)(和)(作)(者)(无)(关)(。本)(报)(告)(所)(载)(的)(资)(料)(、意)(见)(及)(推)(测)(仅)(反)(映)(本)(公)(司)(于)(发)(布)(本)(报)(告)(当)(日)(的)(判)(断)(,本)(报)(告)(所)(指)(的)(证)(券)(或)(投)(资)(标)(的)(的)(价)(格)(、价)(值)(及)(投)(资)(收)(入)(可)(升)(可)(跌)(,过)(往)(表)(现)(不)(应)(作)(为)(日)(后)(的)(表)(现)(依)(据)(;在)(不)(同)(时)(期)(,本)(公)(司)(可)(发)(出)(与)(本)(报)(告)(所)(载)(资)(料)(、意)(见)(及)(推)(测)(不)(一)(致)(的)(报)(告)(;本)(公)(司)(不)(保)(证)(本)(报)(告)(所)(含)(信)(息)(保)(持)(在)(最)(新)(状)(态)(。同)(时)(,本)(公)(司)(对)(本)(报)(告)(所)(含)(信)(息)(可)(在)(不)(发)(出)(通)(知)(的)(情)(形)(下)(做)(出)(修)(改)(,投)(资)(者)(应)(当)(自)(行)(关)(注)(相)(应)(的)(更)(新)(或)(修)(改)(。本)(公)(司)(及)(作)(者)(在)(自)(身)(所)(知)(情)(范)(围)(内)(,与)(本)(报)(告)(中)(所)(评)(价)(或)(推)(荐)(的)(证)(券)(不)(存)(在)(法)(律)(法)(规)(要)(求)(披)(露)(或)(采)(取)(限)(制)(、静)(默)(措)(施)(的)(利)(益)(冲)(突)(。本)(报)(告)(版)(权)(仅)(仅)(为)(本)(公)(司)(所)(有)(,未)(经)(书)(面)(许)(可)(,任)(何)(机)(构)(和)(个)(人)(不)(得)(以)(任)(何)(形)(式)(翻)(版)(、复)(制)(和)(发)(布)(。如)(引)(用)(须)(注)(明)(出)(处)(为)(长)(江)(证)(券)(研)(究)(所)(,且)(不)(得)(对)(本)(报)(告)(进)(行)(有)(悖)(原)(意)(的)(引)(用)(、删)(节)(和)(修)(改)(。刊)(载)(或)(者)(转)(发)(本)(证)(券)(研)(究)(报)(告)(或)(者)(摘)(要)(的)(,应)(当)(注)(明)(本)(报)(告)(的)(发)(布)(人)(和)(发)(布)(日)(期)(,提)(示)(使)(用)(证)(券)(研)(究)(报)(告)(的)(风)(险)(。未)(经)(授)(权)(刊)(载)(或)(者)(转)(发)(本)(报)(告)(的)(,本)(公)(司)(将)(保)(留)(向)(其)(追)(究)(法)(律)(责)(任)(的)(权)(利)(。
免)(责)(声)(明)(
本)(订)(阅)(号)(不)(是)(长)(江)(证)(券)(研)(究)(所)(官)(方)(订)(阅)(平)(台)(。相)(关)(观)(点)(或)(信)(息)(请)(以)(“长)(江)(研)(究)(”订)(阅)(号)(为)(准)(。本)(订)(阅)(号)(仅)(面)(向)(长)(江)(证)(券)(客)(户)(中)(的)(专)(业)(投)(资)(者)(,根)(据)(《证)(券)(期)(货)(投)(资)(者)(适)(当)(性)(管)(理)(办)(法)(》,若)(您)(并)(非)(长)(江)(证)(券)(客)(户)(中)(的)(专)(业)(投)(资)(者)(,为)(保)(证)(服)(务)(质)(量)(、控)(制)(投)(资)(风)(险)(,请)(勿)(订)(阅)(或)(转)(载)(本)(订)(阅)(号)(中)(的)(信)(息)(。长)(江)(研)(究)(不)(因)(任)(何)(订)(阅)(本)(公)(众)(号)(的)(行)(为)(而)(将)(订)(阅)(者)(视)(为)(长)(江)(证)(券)(的)(客)(户)(。
市)(场)(有)(风)(险)(,投)(资)(需)(谨)(慎)(。本)(订)(阅)(号)(接)(受)(者)(应)(当)(仔)(细)(阅)(读)(所)(附)(各)(项)(声)(明)(、信)(息)(披)(露)(事)(项)(及)(相)(关)(风)(险)(提)(示)(,充)(分)(理)(解)(报)(告)(所)(含)(的)(关)(键)(假)(设)(条)(件)(,并)(准)(确)(理)(解)(投)(资)(评)(级)(含)(义)(。在)(任)(何)(情)(况)(下)(,本)(订)(阅)(号)(中)(的)(信)(息)(所)(表)(述)(的)(意)(见)(并)(不)(构)(成)(对)(任)(何)(人)(的)(投)(资)(建)(议)(,订)(阅)(人)(不)(应)(单)(独)(依)(靠)(本)(订)(阅)(号)(中)(的)(信)(息)(而)(取)(代)(自)(身)(独)(立)(的)(判)(断)(,应)(自)(主)(做)(出)(投)(资)(决)(策)(并)(自)(行)(承)(担)(全)(部)(投)(资)(风)(险)(。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
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