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杨德龙:远离疯狂的楼市

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年09月19日 22:39:33
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(原)(标)(题)(:杨)(德)(龙)(:远)(离)(疯)(狂)(的)(楼)(市)(10月)(A股)(有)(望)(反)(弹)(
最)(近)(,我)(们)(看)(内)(地)(市)(场)(,除)(了)(股)(市)(之)(外)(,其)(它)(市)(场)(都)(很)(火)(爆)(,像)(楼)(市)(、商)(品)(期)(货)(都)(很)(火)(爆)(,而)(港)(股)(也)(走)(势)(强)(劲)(。而)(A股)(比)(较)(低)(迷)(,主)(要)(原)(因)(就)(是)(A股)(虽)(然)(在)(今)(年)(上)(半)(年)(出)(现)(了)(震)(荡)(回)(升)(的)(态)(势)(,但)(是)(赚)(钱)(效)(应)(并)(不)(明)(显)(,很)(多)(场)(外)(资)(金)(还)(在)(观)(望)(,还)(没)(有)(积)(极)(入)(场)(。经)(过)(去)(年)(三)(轮)(股)(灾)(之)(后)(,很)(多)(投)(资)(者)(的)(信)(心)(被)(沉)(重)(打)(击)(,短)(期)(之)(内)(信)(心)(恢)(复)(是)(很)(难)(的)(。所)(以)(我)(提)(出)(了)(慢)(牛)(的)(观)(点)(,大)(盘)(方)(向)(是)(向)(上)(的)(,但)(是)(涨)(幅)(会)(非)(常)(慢)(。楼)(市)(的)(火)(爆)(分)(流)(了)(一)(部)(分)(股)(市)(的)(资)(金)(,有)(些)(资)(金)(从)(股)(市)(中)(分)(流)(出)(来)(去)(炒)(楼)(。这)(样)(的)(选)(择)(很)(可)(能)(是)(不)(对)(的)(,因)(为)(追)(涨)(的)(结)(果)(往)(往)(是)(高)(位)(被)(套)(。但)(是)(在)(市)(场)(疯)(狂)(的)(时)(候)(,很)(难)(抑)(制)(一)(部)(分)(资)(金)(追)(涨)(杀)(跌)(。另)(外)(,港)(股)(的)(强)(势)(走)(势)(也)(分)(流)(了)(一)(部)(分)(资)(金)(,通)(过)(沪)(港)(通)(和)(QDII等)(通)(道)(流)(入)(到)(港)(股)(。
盘)(久)(必)(跌)(恰)(为)(入)(场)(好)(时)(机)(
十)(月)(份)(后)(A股)(有)(望)(复)(制)(去)(年)(国)(庆)(节)(后)(的)(走)(势)(,出)(现)(一)(波)(反)(弹)(。节)(前)(很)(多)(投)(资)(者)(无)(心)(恋)(战)(,成)(交)(量)(进)(一)(步)(萎)(缩)(,大)(盘)(在)(三)(千)(点)(附)(近)(出)(现)(震)(荡)(。一)(部)(分)(投)(资)(者)(会)(在)(十)(月)(假)(期)(期)(间)(考)(虑)(去)(看)(房)(,休)(假)(,股)(市)(在)(节)(前)(成)(交)(量)(是)(比)(较)(低)(的)(。资)(金)(是)(逐)(利)(的)(,追)(逐)(疯)(狂)(的)(楼)(市)(是)(本)(性)(,但)(是)(这)(样)(投)(资)(风)(险)(也)(会)(急)(剧)(增)(加)(。在)(讨)(论)(楼)(市)(和)(股)(市)(的)(比)(较)(的)(时)(候)(,现)(在)(可)(以)(考)(虑)(从)(楼)(市)(中)(套)(现)(出)(来)(,抄)(底)(一)(些)(股)(市)(中)(优)(质)(的)(蓝)(筹)(股)(,可)(能)(是)(比)(较)(理)(智)(的)(一)(种)(选)(择)(。十)(月)(份)(,利)(空)(的)(因)(素)(比)(较)(少)(,美)(股)(和)(港)(股)(的)(走)(强)(给)(A股)(一)(部)(分)(补)(涨)(机)(会)(,应)(当)(有)(一)(波)(反)(弹)(。有)(人)(认)(为)(,十)(一)(期)(间)(,大)(家)(看)(楼)(之)(后)(,会)(决)(定)(购)(买)(房)(子)(,这)(样)(一)(部)(分)(资)(金)(又)(分)(流)(了)(。其)(实)(,也)(有)(可)(能)(会)(发)(现)(房)(子)(太)(贵)(了)(,继)(续)(回)(到)(股)(市)(。
沪)(港)(互)(融)(互)(通)(难)(消)(两)(地)(估)(值)(差)(异)(
其)(实)(从)(沪)(港)(通)(推)(出)(之)(后)(,AH股)(差)(价)(格)(就)(逐)(渐)(缩)(小)(了)(,我)(们)(来)(看)(AH股)(的)(溢)(价)(指)(数)(从)(150跌)(到)(了)(120左)(右)(,A股)(比)(港)(股)(贵)(的)(幅)(度)(从)(50%降)(到)(了)(20%,等)(沪)(港)(通)(开)(通)(之)(后)(,这)(个)(数)(字)(会)(进)(一)(步)(回)(落)(,但)(是)(并)(不)(一)(定)(会)(完)(全)(消)(除)(这)(一)(差)(价)(。两)(个)(股)(市)(的)(估)(值)(差)(异)(是)(和)(很)(多)(因)(素)(相)(关)(的)(,比)(如)(说)(,A股)(80%的)(投)(资)(者)(都)(是)(散)(户)(,港)(股)(则)(相)(反)(。而)(散)(户)(的)(风)(险)(接)(受)(能)(力)(相)(对)(强)(一)(些)(,导)(致)(估)(值)(偏)(高)(。另)(外)(两)(地)(的)(资)(金)(结)(构)(也)(不)(同)(,港)(股)(向)(全)(球)(的)(资)(金)(开)(放)(,受)(全)(球)(资)(金)(的)(流)(动)(性)(影)(响)(,而)(A股)(则)(相)(对)(闭)(塞)(,国)(内)(的)(资)(金)(流)(动)(性)(充)(裕)(就)(会)(抬)(高)(A股)(的)(价)(格)(。所)(以)(AH差)(价)(存)(在)(有)(一)(定)(的)(合)(理)(性)(,并)(不)(一)(定)(在)(实)(现)(互)(通)(互)(投)(之)(后)(就)(完)(全)(消)(除)(。另)(外)(不)(同)(的)(行)(业)(,差)(距)(是)(不)(一)(样)(的)(,对)(于)(A股)(一)(些)(高)(成)(长)(的)(行)(业)(,确)(实)(享)(受)(了)(估)(值)(的)(溢)(价)(。但)(是)(A股)(的)(蓝)(筹)(股)(估)(值)(是)(偏)(低)(的)(,有)(的)(甚)(至)(比)(港)(股)(还)(要)(便)(宜)(。
松)(绑)(QFII提)(升)(外)(资)(入)(场)(意)(愿)(
取)(消)(QFII股)(票)(投)(资)(比)(例)(的)(限)(制)(,让)(QFII有)(更)(多)(灵)(活)(性)(,可)(以)(根)(据)(市)(场)(的)(变)(化)(去)(调)(整)(对)(资)(产)(的)(配)(置)(,相)(当)(于)(对)(QFII松)(绑)(。这)(种)(松)(绑)(一)(方)(面)(减)(少)(了)(QFII投)(资)(的)(限)(制)(,当)(行)(情)(前)(景)(不)(好)(的)(时)(候)(,或)(者)(股)(票)(估)(值)(偏)(高)(的)(时)(候)(,QFII可)(以)(减)(少)(对)(股)(票)(资)(产)(的)(配)(置)(。另)(一)(方)(面)(,增)(加)(了)(QFII对)(国)(内)(市)(场)(投)(资)(的)(意)(愿)(。因)(为)(其)(限)(制)(少)(了)(,就)(可)(以)(更)(加)(灵)(活)(进)(行)(配)(置)(,这)(样)(就)(会)(有)(更)(强)(的)(意)(愿)(流)(入)(到)(国)(内)(,并)(不)(能)(简)(单)(理)(解)(为)(利)(空)(。而)(A股)(在)(最)(近)(加)(入)(MSCI指)(数)(的)(呼)(声)(很)(高)(,放)(松)(对)(QFII的)(限)(制)(确)(实)(有)(助)(于)(A股)(加)(入)(MSCI。今)(年)(6月)(份)(,其)(实)(A股)(就)(很)(有)(可)(能)(加)(入)(,但)(是)(因)(为)(一)(些)(原)(因)(推)(迟)(。在)(宣)(布)(推)(迟)(的)(时)(候)(就)(表)(示)(不)(一)(定)(等)(到)(明)(年)(6月)(再)(决)(定)(,只)(要)(明)(晟)(公)(司)(认)(为)(A股)(具)(备)(了)(加)(入)(MSCI的)(条)(件)(,就)(随)(时)(可)(以)(进)(入)(。取)(消)(QFII推)(进)(了)(A股)(加)(入)(MSCI的)(进)(程)(,从)(这)(个)(角)(度)(讲)(,这)(是)(一)(件)(好)(事)(。
港)(股)(短)(期)(调)(整)(不)(改)(反)(弹)(趋)(势)(
我)(们)(其)(实)(可)(以)(看)(到)(,港)(股)(今)(天)(已)(经)(开)(始)(反)(弹)(了)(,涨)(幅)(比)(较)(大)(。可)(能)(和)(总)(统)(候)(选)(人)(电)(视)(辩)(论)(有)(关)(,港)(股)(的)(走)(势)(仍)(然)(在)(一)(个)(上)(升)(的)(通)(道)(,在)(今)(年)(春)(节)(前)(后)(,A股)(见)(到)(历)(史)(大)(底)(后)(其)(实)(港)(股)(也)(见)(到)(历)(史)(大)(底)(,当)(时)(我)(就)(指)(出)(,港)(股)(在)(跌)(破)(19000点)(之)(后)(其)(实)(出)(现)(了)(一)(个)(非)(常)(好)(的)(买)(入)(机)(会)(,现)(在)(已)(经)(脱)(离)(19000点)(的)(底)(部)(,变)(现)(出)(了)(比)(较)(好)(的)(上)(升)(趋)(势)(。但)(是)(,其)(实)(和)(美)(股)(相)(比)(,港)(股)(的)(涨)(幅)(仍)(然)(是)(比)(较)(小)(的)(,港)(股)(的)(估)(值)(仍)(然)(是)(全)(世)(界)(主)(要)(市)(场)(中)(最)(低)(的)(。从)(这)(个)(角)(度)(讲)(,港)(股)(并)(不)(一)(定)(会)(出)(现)(大)(幅)(度)(调)(整)(,而)(是)(经)(过)(短)(期)(调)(整)(后)(,继)(续)(上)(行)(,所)(以)(目)(前)(仍)(然)(是)(入)(场)(的)(机)(会)(。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
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